How it was clear from the beginning

General discussions regarding DNA and its uses in genealogy research

Posts: 2406
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2012 7:08 am
Location: Pisa (Italy)
YDNA:
R- Z2110 (KV7Y2)
MtDNA:
K1a1b1e/HQ176413
PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:49 am
Of course I thank you for having sent me your text, and above all for what you wrote, but at this point I am curious to know your real identity. Is this “Ryan Diya” your real name? It seems more from India than from Morocco as you said in a previous letter, and of course I would want having seen the faces of many people on Anthrogenica in reading your post, from Jean Manco, my [...] ” for paraphrasing Berlusconi who defined Mrs Merkel “la culona inchiavabile”, one of the few things which will remain of him, to Gail “en travestie”, to the same DMXX, who wrote the sentence of my banishment, for complaining his bosses, to all the Judentum, I say in Italian “ebreume”, who masters that blog, pretty all the other ones, all the labs, the funds, the tests, from Javelin to Agamemnon… I let to speak about Davidski, at least a little man…
I may you only note that also what you say about the refugium, alpine better than Italian, is already in my writings and all what you say about R-M73 (at least from the time of the Italian samples, Vizzacchero and Mainenti, already from the times of the other Vizzacchero (said Vizachero in his American version)), the first I named a lackey of Jews , before the other Richard Rocca, one of the most stupid person I met in my life.
Many other things of what I wrote has to be examined from you, and perhaps you don’t agree with me if you believe that hg E was born in Africa, the “Out of Africa” and all the rest. I wrote also thousands of letters about the mt and much other.

How it was all clear from the beginning
In this post, I will talk about R1b and how the truth about it could have been deduced many years ago and is now more and more being confirmed by ancient DNA. If you all remember, early studies seemed to give more attention to frequency rather than diversity and for this R-M269 was once believed to have been the genetic signature of the very first Europeans due to its high concentration in the western portion of the ''continent'' and especially among the Basques whose language was thought to be a remnant of the first paleolithic Europeans.

However, the data back then was already clear in that it was not supportive of this agenda-driven scenario. Looking at the various haplotypes of R-M269 from all around Europe, it was clear that the clade lacked in diversity but you could only know it if you actually cared to compare the data with that of Haplogroup I and especially I2. Looking at I2, it was possible to notice how it was made up of multiple distinct branches represented by different modal haplotypes and with much more internal diversity, indicating the haplogroup's more ancient diversification. On the other hand, the different divisions within R-M269 not only somewhat lacked in diversity but also more often than not did not have distinct modals and thus could not really be distinguished on the basis of Y-STRs, the main tool we had back then. This off course meant that no long bottleneck events led to those branches and that R-M269 instead differentiated quickly into its various sub-clades, in a starlike fashion. That was of course indicative of a more recent expansion and clearly very far from being in agreement with the absurd belief that it was Cro-Magnon's line.

All of the above was of course confirmed when the SNP revolution happened in the beginning of the current decade and when ancient DNA emerged. Even shortly before that, there were new theories proposing a neolithic arrival together with other allegedly neolithic lines from the Near-East and many people switched to this scenario. This was when papers started to become increasingly obsessed by diversity, not yet knowing that it is rather basal diversity that is more important since Y-STR diversity on itself could be misleading, especially when not understood properly. The diversity of M269 in Armenia and Anatolia made a lot of people think that this was evidence for this new scenario. But if the time aspect was now closer to the truth as it was no longer question of Cro-Magnon or any absurd stuff along those lines, there was more to it if one payed enough attention. Europe also had it's big share of basal R-M269, and R-L23(xL51) looked rather european and was all over the place. Gioiello made countless efforts trying to persuade people about the role Italy played in the evolution of M269 and R1b as a whole, but most people didn't want to listen, despite him being very insightful. People cared more about their own personal conviction and opted for either a neolithic arrival or a link with the diffusion of indo-european languages.

However, the data was also not in favor of any of that, which further shows how fast are people, be them actual scientists or not, jumping to conclusions. No matter how people tried to ignore Italy and Europe, the fact remained that there was definitely something of great importance over there and someone had to provide a sound explanation. The indo-european migrations didn't make sense and were easy to dismiss for it was recorded that not only ''basque'' but quite a few pre indo-european languages were spoken in Iberia not so long ago. Or were these people thinking that all of iberian M269 came with the Celts or the Romans ? Very silly indeed... The near-eastern theory was also very speculative, nothing indicated that M269 could be from there, its distribution as well as internal structure are not similar to other clades that were thought to have diffused during the neolithic. It was primarily because of R-V88 that people insisted on this otherwise poor scenario. Indeed, everyone was of the opinion that V88 entered Africa from the Levant because that was the most obvious route. But did it really make sense that various clades of R1b would have migrated from the Near-East at very distinct times without the Near-East preserving any initial diversity even though - given that M269 and V88 are fairly divergent from each other - it stayed there for many thousand years and that instead each branch migrated to very different places (M269 to Europe, M73 to the north into Eastern-Europe/Central Asia and V88 to Africa) and during different eras, without being associated with other clades along the way ? At least in my head, it always looked very unlikely that R1b was ever in the Middle-East.

If you really looked close enough, there was more to R-V88 than this very simplistic scenario. Browsing through the data made it clear that there was something european about V88. Its presence in many regions across the ''continent'' (Italy, Balkans, Iberia, British Isles...) was certainly against some kind of african diffusion. V88 in Africa has a ''chadic'' diffusion, not maghrebi. Even if it came from the Maghreb, how come it made it to so many places then and why would Sardinia have this elevated frequency of almost 3% and have specific non-african sub-clades ? This was without even looking at the diversity, for which european V88 seemed to have much by looking at the haplotypes. When we came to know more about R-V88's phylogeny, it of course became obvious that it is Europe and not Africa which harbored basal lines and thus was its most likely place of origin. I was and still am from the view that it entered Africa from Italy since it is more common there and is very rare in Morocco (about 0.2%) and almost non-existent in more western areas of Africa thus making an iberian route very unlikely, whereas it is relatively common in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt (roughly 2% or more each) making it more likely that it quickly went to the south following ancient libyan rivers from there until it reached lake Chad. Today we know from Yfull that this is a nicely fitting model since the TMRCA of sub-saharan V88 corresponds to the intense aridification process associated with the 5.9 kiloyear event. The near-eastern scenario never made sense...

But apparently, all of this was not enough to convince the majority of people. Now when ancient DNA came into play and that R-M269 failed to show up in various neolithic remains, most people became even more clueless. The followers of the near-eastern neolithic origin quickly switched their minds and started adhering to the indo-european arrival from the East, especially when it appeared in Yamnaya, not acknowledging that V88 is most likely european thus not being concerned with the fact that Europe/Italy have basal representatives for both V88 and M269, which would be a little bit too coincidental to happen through unrelated migrations to Italy. Hey but they had R-M73 to back them up in their claims right !? Here comes the most interesting part which should end the debate. Indeed, the sister-clade of R-M269, R-M73, would appear eastern to the unfamiliar observer given that it is mostly diffused in central Asia and even managed to reach much farther east as far as western China. Well, that's only true for one of its two sub-clades, R-M478, which is further divided in two. The first cluster, now known as R-Y14051, is lacking in diversity due to a more pronounced bottleneck and can easily be spotted by a multi-step deletion at DYS390 for which it has a value of 19, while the second cluster, now R-Y20750, is more diverse and ancient. M478 as a whole seems to be associated with turkic speaking people and is almost completely absent in Europe.

But here is what most people are not aware of : R-M478 has an european brother. And not only european but western european. This R-M73 sub-clade is definitely not linked to any turkic migration or whatsoever, as it is not seen outside of western Europe, where it is found everywhere albeit at low frequencies. While it is now merely a shell of its former self, YHRD used to be a great tool for allowing the user to search for haplotypes in their massive database, with more than 7000 samples from Germany, 4000 from Poland, 2000 from Czech republic, 5000 from Iberia and so on. Thanks to it, I've found a lot of stuff and this, coupled with FTDNA, was what enabled me to see just how widespread and above all very diverse this sub-clade is. Hopefully it has a distinct enough modal to be identified, you just had to enter the three main discriminating values [DYS438=10, DYS392=13, DYS393=12] and then add a couple more to narrow down the possibilities such as DYS390=25. YHRD will then give you every corresponding haplotype and neighboring haplotypes (which are one mutation away from what you entered). Doing a few searches, the haplogroup showed up in a bunch of different regions within western Europe, reaching even previous associated colonies. It is found as far south as Portugal where it is also represented by a small cluster with DYS390 = 9 that also made it to Brazil, and as far north as Mecklenburg in northern Germany ! Everywhere in western Europe but never in the east, not even in Poland, with the easternmost case I know of being czech ! As can also be observed at FTDNA, its diversity is kind of high and I estimate its expansion time to be around 5000 years old. It happens to be concentrated just north of Italy : in the alpine mountain range of Switzerland and Austria, where it is found at about 0.3 - 0.5% on average. So we are again brought to the same area, an area which seemingly played a major role in the history of R1b no doubt (for example, remember the concentration of R-L23* in Switerland was known for many years).

But I guess some could argue that pre-M73 was found in a hunter-gatherer from Samara, dating from about 7.6 kya. I wonder what actually told them that M478 and M73 are equivalent SNPs while they're not as I've just told you about this non-M478 european cluster ! So the case from Samara is pre-M478 and now we know that M478's MRCA lived some 7.3 kya and would thus represent an eastern migration of M73. I'd estimate european R-M73* to have diverged from M478 about a thousand years earlier or two, putting the overall TMRCA of R-M73 at around 8-9000 years. We would need a sample submitted to Yfull to refine the estimate.

So here is what I wanted to say : that everything was already clear, but only if you cared enough to dig extensively through every piece of data made available. It was clear based on all the above observations that Europe, especially the area around Italy/Switzerland, was very important to understand R-M269 and even R1b as a whole, pointing to some kind of alpine refugium. Back then, while not defined by any SNP yet, even the much rare sub-clades such as R-L389(xP297) and the basal R-L278*/PH155 could easily be noticed to also have european representatives. Now that we have a better understanding of haplogroups thanks to the SNP revolution, we can estimate ages with much more accuracy and it just so happens that most R1b sub-clades expanded at similar dates centered at about 7500 years ago, thus indicating a more or less common bottleneck in support of a refugium scenario. With ancient DNA, it is now case closed I think, with V88 popping up everywhere in Europe, taking away any last hope from the proponents of an extra-european coalescence. R1b, while clearly not the first european haplogroup, is not of neolithic or post-neolithic arrival either : it occupies an intermediate position between the two claims. It was already clear from the start and if you're not convinced, I suggest you re-read all of the above.

But it was not clear for people who rushed to conclusions to support their own convictions. I cannot believe that the likes of Davidski spend a lot of time dealing with different charts, graphs and statistics but are still clueless. I've noticed that many people are saying that modern DNA is not informative, and it is not informative when you refuse to admit that Y-DNA K2 is south-east asian and instead argue that it's central asian, or think that E is not african... Lesson to be learned : never underestimate modern DNA and study every hidden bit of it while staying objective if you really want to discover the truth, else prepare to get your own little world destroyed when ancient DNA is given the right to speak.

Posts: 2229
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 5:43 pm

MtDNA:
U5b2b
PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:06 am
Gioiello
It was all clear to you from the beginning and your theory of an Italian Refuge is bearing fruit.

Posts: 2406
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2012 7:08 am
Location: Pisa (Italy)
YDNA:
R- Z2110 (KV7Y2)
MtDNA:
K1a1b1e/HQ176413
PostPosted: Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:36 pm
dartraighe wrote:Gioiello
It was all clear to you from the beginning and your theory of an Italian Refuge is bearing fruit.


It seems that this thread hasn’t been deleted so far and the discussion continues:

33
Today, 04:56 AM
jeanL replied to a thread How it was all clear from the beginning in General
Well; but we do have some Yamnaya y-DNA from Bulgaria and zero R1b-M269-L51. Also plenty of Ukrainian Neolithic samples; yet 0 R1b-M269-L51. Heck...
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33 replies | 663 view(s)

32
Today, 04:01 AM
rms2 replied to a thread How it was all clear from the beginning in General
We don't know that. We don't have any Yamnaya y-dna from the Pontic steppe, none from Mikhailovka, Kemi Oba, etc. We don't know that. It is...
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33 replies | 663 view(s)

31
Today, 03:55 AM
Gravetto-Danubian replied to a thread How it was all clear from the beginning in General
What’s also interesting is that Khvalynsk Eneolithic R1b is now on the same branch as Armenia EBA Kalavan Cave
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33 replies | 663 view(s)

P.S. One day, when someone sends me that thread, I'll be amazed in reading that!

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