### Mutations : Don't mistake real rates with high-qual rates

Posted:

**Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:13 pm**On April,29th 2014, I wrote a post in Anthrogenica

http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread. ... #post38720

Here are the contents

"Yesterday,in https://www.facebook.com/groups/9995363812/ there is a very interesting comparizon published by Itaï Juste:

"I just compared FG and BIG Y results from Mr. Kraus in my project who did both tests, using FG interpretation for both results, so they can be compared on the same bases.

As a reminder, here is FG interpretation reliability scale:

no flag: over 99% likely genuine (95% for INDELs); *: over 95% likely genuine (90% for INDELs); **: about 40% likely genuine; ***: about 10% likely genuine

I get following statistics:

SNP in KRAUS FG: 5504; the no flag: 905; *: 254; **: 1710; ***: 2635

SNP in KRAUS BIG Y: 4925;_ no flag: 554; *: 125; **: 858; ***: 3388

SNP in both KRAUS FG and BIG Y: 1879.

no flag in FG : no flag in BIG Y: 486; * in BIG Y: 80; ** in BIG Y: 51; *** in BIG Y: 33.

* in FG :_______no flag in BIG Y: 49; * in BIG Y: 31; ** in BIG Y: 12; *** in BIG Y: 13.

** in FG;______no flag in BIG Y: 15; * in BIG Y: 12; ** in BIG Y: 412; *** in BIG Y: 297.

*** in FG______no flag in BIG Y: 2;_ * in BIG Y: 1;_ ** in BIG Y: 106; *** in BIG Y: 279

Different called results in BIG Y and FG (one positive and the other negative): 374+9

no flag in BIG Y: 0; * in BIG Y: 0; ** in BIG Y: 43; *** in BIG Y: 340"

I think about 90-99% of SNPs are found by the FGC analysis for FGC/BGI raw data (about 15 Mbp selected) and Big Y data (about 10 Mbp selected) but hardly the half of the real found markers are with high qualifications.

For about 10M analysed in BIG Y raw data, there are 1879 found in FGC/BGI raw data, almost every are correct and the real number of SNPs should be about 1900 for 10M and 2850 for 15M.

The proportion of high qualifications for FGC data is about 1159/2850=40,66% and for BIG Y data about 679/1900=35,75%

If we suppose the reference is the Adam of the split of A0 and A1 (nowithstanding of A00) which dates from 160-240,000 years

This gives for

- FGC data a mutation from every 160,000/1159 = 138 years to every 240,000/1159 = 207 years.

- Big Y data a mutattion from every 160,000/679 = 235 years to every 240,000/679 = 353 years.

My preference is for the high datation which allows an "Out of Africa" during the very favourable, very warm and very wet Eemian (130-125,000 years ago) and I will take for estimation for FGC data 1 high-qualification mutation every 200 years (5 mutations every millenium) and for BIG Y data 1 high-qualification mutation every 333 years (3 mutations every millenium).

40% gives a real rate of about 10/4= 2.5 mutations every 200 years or 1 real mutation every 200/2.5= 80years for 15M or 1 mutation every 120 years for 10M."

My goal was to well marked the number differences between real mutations and High Quality mutations because I found a lot of anthrogenica participants didn't do the difference and this involves a trouble in the calculation of mutation rates. In more, I found this absence of discrimination was not innocent and allowed to make easy the validation of their theories about R1b=Bell Beakers and to avoid a big difference with the dates calculated from the STR diversity which were their old reference in their theories.

I found

1) the High Qualty mutations were about 40% of the real mutations for FGC (in 15M bp) and about 36% for BigY (in 10Mb)

2)

a) If Adam lived 160,000 years ago, for FGC (15Mbp) , the high-quality mutation rate was 1 mutation every 138 years , the real mutation rate was 138x40,66/100= 56 years for 15Mb.

If Adam lived 160,000 years ago, for BIG Y (10Mbp), the high-quality mutation rate was 1 mutation every 235 years , the mutation rate was 235x35,75/100= 84 years. for 10Mb

b) If Adam lived 2400,000 years ago, for FGC (15Mbp) , the high-quality mutation rate was 1 mutation every 207 years , the real mutation rate was 207x40,66/100= 84 years for 15Mb.

If Adam lived 160,000 years ago, for BIG Y (10Mbp), the high-quality mutation rate was 1 mutation every 353 years , the mutation rate was 353x35,75/100= 126 years. for 10Mb

Therefore I found 1 real mutation rate every 56-84 years for FGC (15M) and every 84-126 years for Big Y (10M), and not the same thing, 1 high qual. mutation every 138-207 years for FGC (15M) and every 235-353 years for Big Y (10M)

http://www.anthrogenica.com/showthread. ... #post38720

Here are the contents

"Yesterday,in https://www.facebook.com/groups/9995363812/ there is a very interesting comparizon published by Itaï Juste:

"I just compared FG and BIG Y results from Mr. Kraus in my project who did both tests, using FG interpretation for both results, so they can be compared on the same bases.

As a reminder, here is FG interpretation reliability scale:

no flag: over 99% likely genuine (95% for INDELs); *: over 95% likely genuine (90% for INDELs); **: about 40% likely genuine; ***: about 10% likely genuine

I get following statistics:

SNP in KRAUS FG: 5504; the no flag: 905; *: 254; **: 1710; ***: 2635

SNP in KRAUS BIG Y: 4925;_ no flag: 554; *: 125; **: 858; ***: 3388

SNP in both KRAUS FG and BIG Y: 1879.

no flag in FG : no flag in BIG Y: 486; * in BIG Y: 80; ** in BIG Y: 51; *** in BIG Y: 33.

* in FG :_______no flag in BIG Y: 49; * in BIG Y: 31; ** in BIG Y: 12; *** in BIG Y: 13.

** in FG;______no flag in BIG Y: 15; * in BIG Y: 12; ** in BIG Y: 412; *** in BIG Y: 297.

*** in FG______no flag in BIG Y: 2;_ * in BIG Y: 1;_ ** in BIG Y: 106; *** in BIG Y: 279

Different called results in BIG Y and FG (one positive and the other negative): 374+9

no flag in BIG Y: 0; * in BIG Y: 0; ** in BIG Y: 43; *** in BIG Y: 340"

I think about 90-99% of SNPs are found by the FGC analysis for FGC/BGI raw data (about 15 Mbp selected) and Big Y data (about 10 Mbp selected) but hardly the half of the real found markers are with high qualifications.

For about 10M analysed in BIG Y raw data, there are 1879 found in FGC/BGI raw data, almost every are correct and the real number of SNPs should be about 1900 for 10M and 2850 for 15M.

The proportion of high qualifications for FGC data is about 1159/2850=40,66% and for BIG Y data about 679/1900=35,75%

If we suppose the reference is the Adam of the split of A0 and A1 (nowithstanding of A00) which dates from 160-240,000 years

This gives for

- FGC data a mutation from every 160,000/1159 = 138 years to every 240,000/1159 = 207 years.

- Big Y data a mutattion from every 160,000/679 = 235 years to every 240,000/679 = 353 years.

My preference is for the high datation which allows an "Out of Africa" during the very favourable, very warm and very wet Eemian (130-125,000 years ago) and I will take for estimation for FGC data 1 high-qualification mutation every 200 years (5 mutations every millenium) and for BIG Y data 1 high-qualification mutation every 333 years (3 mutations every millenium).

40% gives a real rate of about 10/4= 2.5 mutations every 200 years or 1 real mutation every 200/2.5= 80years for 15M or 1 mutation every 120 years for 10M."

My goal was to well marked the number differences between real mutations and High Quality mutations because I found a lot of anthrogenica participants didn't do the difference and this involves a trouble in the calculation of mutation rates. In more, I found this absence of discrimination was not innocent and allowed to make easy the validation of their theories about R1b=Bell Beakers and to avoid a big difference with the dates calculated from the STR diversity which were their old reference in their theories.

I found

1) the High Qualty mutations were about 40% of the real mutations for FGC (in 15M bp) and about 36% for BigY (in 10Mb)

2)

a) If Adam lived 160,000 years ago, for FGC (15Mbp) , the high-quality mutation rate was 1 mutation every 138 years , the real mutation rate was 138x40,66/100= 56 years for 15Mb.

If Adam lived 160,000 years ago, for BIG Y (10Mbp), the high-quality mutation rate was 1 mutation every 235 years , the mutation rate was 235x35,75/100= 84 years. for 10Mb

b) If Adam lived 2400,000 years ago, for FGC (15Mbp) , the high-quality mutation rate was 1 mutation every 207 years , the real mutation rate was 207x40,66/100= 84 years for 15Mb.

If Adam lived 160,000 years ago, for BIG Y (10Mbp), the high-quality mutation rate was 1 mutation every 353 years , the mutation rate was 353x35,75/100= 126 years. for 10Mb

Therefore I found 1 real mutation rate every 56-84 years for FGC (15M) and every 84-126 years for Big Y (10M), and not the same thing, 1 high qual. mutation every 138-207 years for FGC (15M) and every 235-353 years for Big Y (10M)