The 2.5 factor

Any discussions regarding y-DNA markers, results or questions.

Posts: 2406
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2012 7:08 am
Location: Pisa (Italy)
YDNA:
R- Z2110 (KV7Y2)
MtDNA:
K1a1b1e/HQ176413
PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2015 3:04 pm
I have often spoken in the past about the fact that the TMCA calculated as to the STRs with the germline method was underestimated by a factor of 2.5. If we look at the YFull tree, for instance, hg. R1b1c (V88*) is extimated born 16700 years ago but the MRCA of the samples examined so far is 6600 years. If we divide 16700 for 6600 we have just that factor of 2.5. Why? Because the lines survived may have a MRCA just 6600 years ago, but only because this one would be the unique line to have descendants survived till to day, but that one line have the SNPs accumulated from 16700 years ago, not so the STRs values, because we find them as to they were in that line 6600 years ago, where all the mutations accumulated were neutralized at that stage, i.e. all the mutations as to my principles (mutations happen around the modal, there is a convergence as to the modal as time passes, sometime there is a mutaton for the tangent, rarely there are multistep mutations) were by chance nullified.
Last edited by Gioiello on Sat Feb 21, 2015 12:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

Posts: 587
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:59 am

YDNA:
Adam-L74; R1a-YP4700
MtDNA:
H14a
PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2015 8:59 pm
Gioiello wrote:I have often spoken in the past about the fact that the TMCA calculated as to the STRs with the germline method was underestimated by a factor of 2.5. If we look at the YFull tree, for instance, hg. R1b1c (V88*) is extimated born 16700 years ago but the MRCA of the samples examined so far is 6600 years. If we divide 16700 for 6600 we have just that factor of 2.5. Why? Because the lines survived may have a MRCA just 6600 years ago, but only because this one would is the unique line to have descendants survived till to day, but that one line have the SNPs accumulated from 16700 years ago, not so the STRs values, because we find them as to they were in that line 6600 years ago, where all the mutations accumulated were neutralized at that stage, i.e. all the mutations as to my principles (mutations happen around the modal, there is a convergence as to the modal as time passes, sometime there is a mutaton for the tangent, rarely there are multistep mutations) were by chance nullified.

Now there is no fun in STR mutations.
There in YFull are only statistics SNP mutations, agreed with all parallel lines

Posts: 587
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:59 am

YDNA:
Adam-L74; R1a-YP4700
MtDNA:
H14a
PostPosted: Fri Feb 20, 2015 9:00 pm
Gioiello wrote:I have often spoken in the past about the fact that the TMCA calculated as to the STRs with the germline method was underestimated by a factor of 2.5. If we look at the YFull tree, for instance, hg. R1b1c (V88*) is extimated born 16700 years ago but the MRCA of the samples examined so far is 6600 years. If we divide 16700 for 6600 we have just that factor of 2.5. Why? Because the lines survived may have a MRCA just 6600 years ago, but only because this one would is the unique line to have descendants survived till to day, but that one line have the SNPs accumulated from 16700 years ago, not so the STRs values, because we find them as to they were in that line 6600 years ago, where all the mutations accumulated were neutralized at that stage, i.e. all the mutations as to my principles (mutations happen around the modal, there is a convergence as to the modal as time passes, sometime there is a mutaton for the tangent, rarely there are multistep mutations) were by chance nullified.

Now there is no fun in STR mutations.
There in YFull are only statistics SNP mutations, agreed with all parallel lines

Posts: 2406
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2012 7:08 am
Location: Pisa (Italy)
YDNA:
R- Z2110 (KV7Y2)
MtDNA:
K1a1b1e/HQ176413
PostPosted: Sat Feb 21, 2015 12:18 am
Atim wrote:Now there is no fun in STR mutations.
There in YFull are only statistics SNP mutations, agreed with all parallel lines


It seems that YFull will give also a mutation rate of the STRs (they extract from Big Y and above all from Full Genome much more than the 111 STRs of FTDNA). We'll see what they do and which ages. Also SNPs counting has many problems, but different from the STRs ones. No mutation around the modal, back mutations are very rare, etc., but the number of SNPs detected are very different. They depend from the age of the father (both too young and too old may have more mutations) and above all from the hardware: the no-calls are many and the region tested are different. So far it seems that the best test is the Full Genome I did with FGC, in fact I have 80 SNPs downstream Z2110*, not counting indels.

Posts: 587
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:59 am

YDNA:
Adam-L74; R1a-YP4700
MtDNA:
H14a
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:10 am
Gioiello wrote:
Atim wrote:Now there is no fun in STR mutations.
There in YFull are only statistics SNP mutations, agreed with all parallel lines


It seems that YFull will give also a mutation rate of the STRs (they extract from Big Y and above all from Full Genome much more than the 111 STRs of FTDNA). We'll see what they do and which ages. Also SNPs counting has many problems, but different from the STRs ones. No mutation around the modal, back mutations are very rare, etc., but the number of SNPs detected are very different. They depend from the age of the father (both too young and too old may have more mutations) and above all from the hardware: the no-calls are many and the region tested are different. So far it seems that the best test is the Full Genome I did with FGC, in fact I have 80 SNPs downstream Z2110*, not counting indels.

So I see that your Z2110 has a famous great-grandfather: L23!
Congratulations!

Posts: 2406
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2012 7:08 am
Location: Pisa (Italy)
YDNA:
R- Z2110 (KV7Y2)
MtDNA:
K1a1b1e/HQ176413
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:41 am
Atim wrote:So I see that your Z2110 has a famous great-grandfather: L23!
Congratulations!


Atim, I thank you. You know that I am the theorist of the Italian Refugium and not because I am a Tuscan documented from the 13th century and very likely from so long before, but because I am convinced from what I know about Genetics, History, Linguistics and all the rest. But I wrote recently elsewhere that I should be glad if the theory of Haak et alii about the origin of L23 from the Russian plane and of the Indo-European languages were true, because I would descend from those people who brought this hg to Western Europe, the language of us all (comprised you) and my ancestors would have been the chieftains. But I think that there aren't so far proofs about that and am waiting that other samples are examined and other tests done.
About the grandfather L23: my line R-Z2110 belongs to a brother clade of R-L51 from whom all the Western European R1b descend. The problem is to understand where was the origin of this brother clade for understanding where the L51 was born and above all where the same L23* was born. But L23*, as to the last YFull tree, was born 12700 years ago, and the son L51 and Z2103/Z2105 (from where my line derives) have a MRCA only 6400 years ago. Thus there was a long bottleneck from whom only two lines (or a few minor others) survived. Thus where the two sons lived doesn't say anything about where the ancestor L23* lived 6000 years before. My theory of the Italian Refugium is due just because I think that the ancestor R1b1-L389* lived in Italy, because Italy has so far the highest variance of it.
As to your R1a I have written many times, also here conversing with Michal, that I think that it was born in the Western European refugia but that the most recent ancestors of the subclades (M17) lived in Central Europe, close to your country.

Posts: 2229
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 5:43 pm

MtDNA:
U5b2b
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:44 pm
Gioiello wrote:
Atim wrote:So I see that your Z2110 has a famous great-grandfather: L23!
Congratulations!


Atim, I thank you. You know that I am the theorist of the Italian Refugium and not because I am a Tuscan documented from the 13th century and very likely from so long before, but because I am convinced from what I know about Genetics, History, Linguistics and all the rest. But I wrote recently elsewhere that I should be glad if the theory of Haak et alii about the origin of L23 from the Russian plane and of the Indo-European languages were true, because I would descend from those people who brought this hg to Western Europe, the language of us all (comprised you) and my ancestors would have been the chieftains. But I think that there aren't so far proofs about that and am waiting that other samples are examined and other tests done.
About the grandfather L23: my line R-Z2110 belongs to a brother clade of R-L51 from whom all the Western European R1b descend. The problem is to understand where was the origin of this brother clade for understanding where the L51 was born and above all where the same L23* was born. But L23*, as to the last YFull tree, was born 12700 years ago, and the son L51 and Z2103/Z2105 (from where my line derives) have a MRCA only 6400 years ago. Thus there was a long bottleneck from whom only two lines (or a few minor others) survived. Thus where the two sons lived doesn't say anything about where the ancestor L23* lived 6000 years before. My theory of the Italian Refugium is due just because I think that the ancestor R1b1-L389* lived in Italy, because Italy has so far the highest variance of it.
As to your R1a I have written many times, also here conversing with Michal, that I think that it was born in the Western European refugia but that the most recent ancestors of the subclades (M17) lived in Central Europe, close to your country.



YFull is now playing mind games. One week ago U106 was 6000 ybp and now it is 5000 ybp. Credible or incredible. What will U106 be next week?

Posts: 2406
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2012 7:08 am
Location: Pisa (Italy)
YDNA:
R- Z2110 (KV7Y2)
MtDNA:
K1a1b1e/HQ176413
PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:28 pm
dartraighe wrote:YFull is now playing mind games. One week ago U106 was 6000 ybp and now it is 5000 ybp. Credible or incredible. What will U106 be next week?

Of course recent dates change the more data arrive, but not the oldest ones. I think that also recent dates will go closer to the highest of their interclade whether new rare lines will spring up. Anyway it is clear that the expansion of the R1b subclades happened with the Bell Beakers and also your line arrived in the Isles with them with the R-L21 (someone has recognized that recently also on Anthrogenica).

Posts: 587
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:59 am

YDNA:
Adam-L74; R1a-YP4700
MtDNA:
H14a
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:37 am
dartraighe wrote:YFull is now playing mind games. One week ago U106 was 6000 ybp and now it is 5000 ybp. Credible or incredible. What will U106 be next week?

Reconciliation of all lines that were one time, it is very difficult.
But it's very important. It only gives us a real "mutation rate" - which completely ... disappear!

Posts: 587
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:59 am

YDNA:
Adam-L74; R1a-YP4700
MtDNA:
H14a
PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:57 am
Gioiello wrote:As to your R1a I have written many times, also here conversing with Michal, that I think that it was born in the Western European refugia but that the most recent ancestors of the subclades (M17) lived in Central Europe, close to your country.

This is the way R1a and archaeological protoneolitic "Dęby-type inserts" to the Central Europe.
The archeological traces:

Image

1) Azeria (south of Caucasus)
2) Edazani (Georgia)
3) The Crimea
4) Rudoj Ostrov
5) the village Szpakow (there cradle of Szpakowski UP1272 of the linies Volyn and Pinsk)
http://forum.molgen.org/index.php?topic=1881.0
6) the village Stare Baraki
7) Janisławice
8) the village Dęby 29 (Kuyavia)
This mezolitic/protoneolitic archaeological culture Janisławice-RudojOstrov.
Next

Return to y-DNA Discussions

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests