Datations of Y clades

Any discussions regarding y-DNA markers, results or questions.

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YDNA:
G2a2b2a1b1a2a-CT4803
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 19, 2015 2:54 pm
I don't succeed to digest recent TMRCAs (Time of Most Recent Common Ancestor) for some Y clades giveng by Yfull and other scientists or hobbyists with time differences going from -25% to +25%.

There are a lot of strange cases of clades with a very young TMRCA plus the mania to coincidate the birth dates of cultures and clades without time to the clade to reach a mandatory minimum of population to get a new original culture and the possibity for the archeologs to distinguish it.

I will try to enumerate the different clades with too young TMRCA.

For the old clades it is almost impossible to have a guess and tell how old they are. The possibility is to try to bind clades to new cultures of Middle Paleolithic (but very incertain) or to climatic events which could have opened or closed ways for population flows. Generally the closings are during cold and dry stadials and openings during warm and wet times like Eemian (130-115,000BP) and interstadials as the Brorup, the Odderade, the Oerel, the Glinde, the Hengelo, the Denekamp, etc.

I tend to link the "Out of Africa" with the beginning of Eemian about 130,000BP and the Arabic/near Eastern expansion of the first Nubian culture detected before 100,000BP and it could correspond to the clades CT (formed 83,800 ybp, TMRCA 68,100 ybp for Yfull), and maybe, the mitochondrial clade L3'4'6. ratio 130,000/83,800=1.55.
The second expansion "Out of Arabia" to India and South-East Asia during the Odderade phase about 85,000BP corrresponding to the TMRCAs of the clades D (Yfull: formed 63500 ybp, TMRCA 53200 ybp), C (formed 65400 ybp, TMRCA 48200 ybp), F (formed 65400 ybp, TMRCA 47900 ybp) and the mitochondrial clades M and N with their explosive-star branchings thru India, South-East Asia, Philippines and Indonesia. clade E (formed 63500 ybp, TMRCA 54000 ybp) returned to Africa with mitochondrial haplogroups L4, L6 and all the L3 branches (except M and N) . ratios for D=1.60; for C=1.76; for F=1.77

It could have been an expansion of "Modern Humans" to South-East Asia between 125,000BP and 85,000BP, there are possible archeological traces in China but probably they hybridated with the local archaic races and disappeared.

The main disagreement with the new scientific findings is with the date of Ust-Ishim (dated 47,000BP by RC) of a disappeared branch of the NO clade (formed 41200 ybp, TMRCA 36500 ybp in Yfull) while I would expected for a date around 70,000BP during an interstadial of the first pleniglacial (75-60,000BP), but is the RC datation of a bone found in an antiquary shop of Omsk very certain with the contamination problems at the limit of possible RC datation?


For more recent clades, I can listed the following oddities :

- R1b-M269 in Yfull formed 13100 ybp, TMRCA 6400 ybp with 84SNPs. I am difficult to believe the clade expansion begin around 4400BC date of the first expansion of Pontic steppe people towards Central Europe and Balkans. An expansion require surplus of population which cannot be recent in the demographic conditions of these ages, even with exceptional state of prosperity.

In more, I cannot believe no new branch was born between 11100BC and 4400 in the favorable conditions of the Holocene. On the other hand, it is a lot more comprehensible during the last maximum glacial, if we double the dates at least, we found the bottleneck from 24200 BC to 10400BC .

- R1b-L151 formed 5600 ybp, TMRCA 4800 ybp with 12 SNPs. It is the father of the great R1b-U106 and R1b-P312 clades and the smaller clade R1b-S1200. It would be born about 2800BC, and therefore put into concordance with the birth of Bell Beaker culture. The ancient DNA of Bell Beaker sites are dated about 2600-2000BC and this shows a very quick and large expansion in 2 or 3 centuries without any other clade(s) accompanying this expansion which is very strange for a so young clade during these populated times.

Rest of the list to follow
Last edited by palamede on Sun Dec 20, 2015 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Posts: 143
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2012 6:26 pm
Location: Paris region
YDNA:
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 19, 2015 5:26 pm
According to archeology, Scandinavia, Finlandia and North Russia were populated at the beginning of Holocene after the last cold phase of Younger Dryas about 11,700BP. We have no idea what are the populating clades, but by deduction, the haplogroup I is the most probable. The present population of the center of Scandinavia suggest it is I1 while I2 is not frequent in Scandinavia now, but the oldest ancient analysed skeletons of the end of Mesolithic are from Motala-Sweden Center about 5700BC, they are I2c2, I2a1b*, I2a1*, I2a1a1a*, I2a1b* and from Karelia about 5500BC, it is R1a1*.

- I2c2-PF3827 (Yfull: formed 15,800 ybp, TMRCA 4200 ybp) mainly found in South East Europe. If no mistake, this mesolithic Scandinavian left no descent probably.
- I2a1b-M423 (formed 18,400 ybp, TMRCA 13,700 ybp) mainly found in South East Europe with a peak in West Croatia and Bosnia, found in Loschbour (Luxembourg 6100BC)
- I2a1a1a-L672/S327 under M26 and above or included in I2-L160 (formed 7700 ybp, TMRCA 5200 ybp)

Nowadays the Nordic population are included in the following clades :

- I1-M253 (formed 27,300 ybp, TMRCA 4700 ybp) therefore the ancestor lived around 2700BC (if +25% maximum of 3875BC) and mainly in Scandinavia/Finlandia from I1-L22 (formed 4100 ybp, TMRCA 4000 ybp) around 2000BP (if +25% maximum of 3000BC) .
My preference is an expansion of I1 at the beginning of Holocene 12,000 years ago instead of 4700 years ago, a minimum ratio of 12000/4700=2.55 comparing to Yfull date.

- R1a-L664 (formed 4700 ybp, TMRCA 4000 ybp) a dispersed subclade in North-West Europe

- R1a-Z282 (formed 5000 ybp, TMRCA 5000 ybp) ancestor of the Scandinavian R-Z284 (mainly found north of Bergen along the Norway coast) and other clades of East Europe. (if +25% maximum of 4250BC for the age of the ancestor).

- R1b-L151 (formed 5600 ybp, TMRCA 4800 ybp ancestor) mainly found in Jutland and South-West coast of Norway (if +25% maximum of 4000BC)

- N1-L1026 (formed 6000 ybp, TMRCA 4500 ybp) (if +25% maximum TMRCA of 3625BC) it is the ancestor of several sub-clades found in 25% of Russians, 65% of Finnishes, 40% of Balts.

* The Ugric N1-L1034 (formed 4100 ybp, TMRCA 3900 ybp) ancestor of Komi, Mansi, Khanti, Udmurts and other Volga Finns and Russians.
* The Finnish N1-Z1935 (formed 3600 ybp, TMRCA 2500 ybp) MRCA in 500BC, Oddily young.
* The Chude N1-L1022 (formed 3500 ybp, TMRCA 2900 ybp) MRCA in 900 BC. The Chudes were in the region from Novgorod to beyond Ladoga Lake (some culturally remains, the great majority have been russified).
* The Balt N1-L550 (formed 3300 ybp, TMRCA 2900 ybp) MRCA in 900 BC. Oddily young.

We see 95% of population of North of Europe and about half the population of the rest of Europe descend from 4 male ancestors 5000 years ago (3000BC) according to Yfull and 4250BC for the most generous estimations in a time there were several millions male inhabitants in Europe according to the archeology.
Last edited by palamede on Mon Dec 21, 2015 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

Posts: 143
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YDNA:
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 19, 2015 7:59 pm
palamede wrote:
- N1-L1026 (formed 6000 ybp, TMRCA 4500 ybp) (if +25% maximum of 4000BC) it is the ancestor of several sub-clades found in 25% of Russians, 65% of Finnishes, 40% of Balts :

* The Ugric N1-L1034 (formed 4100 ybp, TMRCA 3900 ybp) ancestor of Komi, Mansi, Khanti, Udmurts and other Volga Finns and Russians.
* The Finnish N1-Z1935 (formed 3600 ybp, TMRCA 2500 ybp) MRCA in 500BC.
* The Chude N1-L1022 (formed 3500 ybp, TMRCA 2900 ybp) MRCA in 900 BC.I
* The Balt N1-L550 (formed 3300 ybp, TMRCA 2900 ybp) MRCA in 900 BC


The first pottery appeared in 5200 BCE in Finland, when the Comb Ceramic culture was introduced. The arrival of the Corded Ware culture in southern coastal Finland between 3000 and 2500 BCE may have coincided with the start of agriculture.

By dating according to the elevation of land, the ceramics have traditionally (Äyräpää 1930) been divided into the following periods: early (Ka I, c. 4200 BC – 3300 BC), typical (Ka II, c. 3300 BC – 2700 BC) and late Comb Ceramic (Ka III, c. 2800 BC – 2000 BC).
However, calibrated radiocarbon dates for the comb-ware fragments found (e.g., in the Karelian isthmus), give a total interval of 5600 BC – 2300 BC

The distribution of the Comb Ceramic artifacts found includes Finnmark (Norway) in the north, the Kalix River (Sweden) and the Gulf of Bothnia (Finland) in the west and the Vistula River (Poland) in the south. In the east the Comb Ceramic pottery of northern Eurasia extends beyond the Ural mountains to the Baraba steppe adjacent to the Altai-Sayan mountain range, merging with a continuum of similar ceramic styles. It would include the Narva culture of Estonia and the Sperrings culture in Finland, among others. They are thought to have been essentially hunter-gatherers, though e.g. the Narva culture in Estonia shows some evidence of agriculture. Some of this region was absorbed by the later Corded Ware horizon.
Previously, the dominant view was that the spread of the Comb Ware people was correlated with the diffusion of the Uralic languages, and thus an early Uralic language must have been spoken throughout this culture. However, another more recent view is that the Comb Ware people may have spoken a Paleo-European (pre-Uralic) language, as some toponyms and hydronyms also indicate a non-Uralic, non-Indo-European language at work in some areas. Even then, linguists and archaeologists both have also been skeptical of assigning languages based on the borders of cultural complexes, and it's possible that the Pit-Comb Ware Culture was made up of several languages, one of them being Proto-Uralic.


We know that Corded Ware c. is generally linked to R1a and the anciant DNAs show it. Even, if some other haplogroups could be absorbed by the people of the CW culture.

The Comb Ware culture was distributed through a vast territory from the Central Siberia to Vistula . It finished about 2300BC and was succceeded by the Ugric and Finnish speakers largely dominated by the N1c clade.
Certainly the beginning of Comb-Ware culture coincides with the TMRCA of N1c-L1026 (formed 6000 ybp, TMRCA 4500 ybp) after the separation with the Yakut branch N1c-M2019 (Yfull: formed 6000 ybp, TMRCA 3300 ybp) .

Therefore the TMRCA of N1c-L1026 is about 5600BC and not 2500BC, it gives a ratio of at least 7600/4500=1.69.

If the entry into Finland is 5200BCE and the TMRCA of the Finnish N1-Z1935 is 500BC, the ratio is 7200/2500=2.88.

Addition : we can notice the oldest known ancient N1c Y-DNA is from the Zhizhitskaya culture in Russia at Serteya (Smolenskaya oblast) II [A6] Male 2500 BC (Chekunova 2014), therefore in the West of Russia near Belorussia border, already 4500 years ago in the extrem limit of the N1c-L1026 population . It is not a definite evidence for oldest datation of N1c-L1026 because it can be from a basal branch of N1c like N1c-P189.2 present although not frequent in the Balkans.

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YDNA:
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:59 pm
An other evample of too short datation is E-V13

E-L618 CTS2003 * FGC11427/Y3763 * CTS6178+53 SNPs formed 12100 ybp, TMRCA 7700 ybpinfo
___E-L618*
____id:YF03299LVA [LV-BU] LV=Latvia
___E-V13 CTS3998 * V13/PF2211 * CTS6229/Z1054+35 SNPs formed 7700 ybp, TMRCA 4400 ybp

There are a lot of E-V13 samples of different origins in Yfull, therefore enough to give a good result according to their mutation hypotheses. E-V13 would have spred from a beginning of 2450BC. with the expansion of bronze metallurgy in Europe after a latency of 3300 years from 5.750 BC during the European Neolithic and Copper Ages, and even a longer time by including E-V618 which hadn't known any real expansion during 6400 years from 10.150 BC to 5.750 BC although originating in Easter Med. Its present expansion make unprobable a so recent TMRCA.
Image
Studies give about 4% in France
Ancient V13 :
Epicardial Spain Avellaner cave, Catalonia [Ave 07] 5000 BC E1b1b1a1b1a M35.1, V13 (dead V13 lineage or mistake ?)
Sopot (proto Lengyel) Hungary Bicske-Galagonyás [BICS 4] 5000-4800 BC E1b1b1a1 M78 (V13 or ancestor of V13 ? )

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Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 5:43 pm

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U5b2b
PostPosted: Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:12 pm
palamede wrote:I don't succeed to digest recent TMRCAs (Time of Most Recent Common Ancestor) for some Y clades giveng by Yfull and other scientists or hobbyists with time differences going from -25% to +25%.

There are a lot of strange cases of clades with a very young TMRCA plus the mania to coincidate the birth dates of cultures and clades without time to the clade to reach a mandatory minimum of population to get a new original culture and the possibity for the archeologs to distinguish it.

I will try to enumerate the different clades with too young TMRCA.

For the old clades it is almost impossible to have a guess and tell how old they are. The possibility is to try to bind clades to new cultures of Middle Paleolithic (but very incertain) or to climatic events which could have opened or closed ways for population flows. Generally the closings are during cold and dry stadials and openings during warm and wet times like Eemian (130-115,000BP) and interstadials as the Brorup, the Odderade, the Oerel, the Glinde, the Hengelo, the Denekamp, etc.

I tend to link the "Out of Africa" with the beginning of Eemian about 130,000BP and the Arabic/near Eastern expansion of the first Nubian culture detected before 100,000BP and it could correspond to the clades CT (formed 83,800 ybp, TMRCA 68,100 ybp for Yfull), and maybe, the mitochondrial clade L3'4'6. ratio 130,000/83,800=1.55.
The second expansion "Out of Arabia" to India and South-East Asia during the Odderade phase about 85,000BP corrresponding to the TMRCAs of the clades D (Yfull: formed 63500 ybp, TMRCA 53200 ybp), C (formed 65400 ybp, TMRCA 48200 ybp), F (formed 65400 ybp, TMRCA 47900 ybp) and the mitochondrial clades M and N with their explosive-star branchings thru India, South-East Asia, Philippines and Indonesia. clade E (formed 63500 ybp, TMRCA 54000 ybp) returned to Africa with mitochondrial haplogroups L4, L6 and all the L3 branches (except M and N) . ratios for D=1.60; for C=1.76; for F=1.77

It could have been an expansion of "Modern Humans" to South-East Asia between 125,000BP and 85,000BP, there are possible archeological traces in China but probably they hybridated with the local archaic races and disappeared.

The main disagreement with the new scientific findings is with the date of Ust-Ishim (dated 47,000BP by RC) of a disappeared branch of the NO clade (formed 41200 ybp, TMRCA 36500 ybp in Yfull) while I would expected for a date around 70,000BP during an interstadial of the first pleniglacial (75-60,000BP), but is the RC datation of a bone found in an antiquary shop of Omsk very certain with the contamination problems at the limit of possible RC datation?


For more recent clades, I can listed the following oddities :

- R1b-M269 in Yfull formed 13100 ybp, TMRCA 6400 ybp with 84SNPs. I am difficult to believe the clade expansion begin around 4400BC date of the first expansion of Pontic steppe people towards Central Europe and Balkans. An expansion require surplus of population which cannot be recent in the demographic conditions of these ages, even with exceptional state of prosperity.

In more, I cannot believe no new branch was born between 11100BC and 4400 in the favorable conditions of the Holocene. On the other hand, it is a lot more comprehensible during the last maximum glacial, if we double the dates at least, we found the bottleneck from 24200 BC to 10400BC .

- R1b-L151 formed 5600 ybp, TMRCA 4800 ybp with 12 SNPs. It is the father of the great R1b-U106 and R1b-P312 clades and the smaller clade R1b-S1200. It would be born about 2800BC, and therefore put into concordance with the birth of Bell Beaker culture. The ancient DNA of Bell Beaker sites are dated about 2600-2000BC and this shows a very quick and large expansion in 2 or 3 centuries without any other clade(s) accompanying this expansion which is very strange for a so young clade during these populated times.

Rest of the list to follow



After the huge M269 bottleneck the first major expansion seems to be with L23 as we can see from smal's Y-tree.
We R1b people lived in the past in a small conservative group for 400 generations, twice as long as we have been separated. The M269 is a mystery that needs to be solved if we are going to make any progress. My view is that P312 and U106 are western European Neolithic subhaplogroups. The evidence is there for all to see.

Posts: 143
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2012 6:26 pm
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YDNA:
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:54 pm
An other very suprising TMRCA is given to E1b1b1b1a-M81. "

E-M81PF2553/M5311 * CTS665/PF2482/M5018 * PF2499/Z1169/M5109+147 SNPsformed 14200 ybp, TMRCA 2100 ybp

Therefore TMRCA 150BC plus+25%, we got 675 BC) . E-M81 is the main haplogroup of Maghreb (NW Africa) with about 50% of the total population and peaks above 80% in the Berbers of Atlas Mountains (villages above 90%). Important presence in West of Iberian Peninsula until 10% in Galicia , Leon Spanish Estramadura and inland disticts of Portuga like Alentejo.

Ted Kandel saw the whole E-M81 as the descendants of Masinissa(c. 240 or 238 BC – c. 148 BC) was the first King of Numidia, although historically we know a great number of descendants were killed, often by their siblings.

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